40
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NFL + COLLEGE FOOTBALL  ·  PROBABILITY ENGINE● APP COMING SOON

The Edge Is
On The Field.

A 10,000-game engine that prices every spread, total, and prop across the NFL & college football slate — then shows you the gap on the market. That gap is your edge.

Download on the App Store
10K
Sims / Game
50+
Metrics
2
Leagues
25s
Live
Drive EPA · By Field PositionNFL · Wk 2
OWN 10
20
30
40
50
OPP 40
30
20
RZ
+8.0% edge
Heat = expected points addedExample view

THE ENGINE

— what stands behind every number
◤ TOP EDGE TODAY
Josh Allen
Passing Yards · Over 268.5 · NFL
+8%
MODEL 61% · MARKET 53% · DE-VIGGED
10,000-GAME SIM
10K
Monte Carlo per matchup
LIVE NOW
3
games · 25-sec refresh
DRIVE CHAIN
320
down · distance · field pos
ADV. METRICS
50+
EPA · CPOE · YPRR · RYOE
01

Ingest

Play-by-play, Next Gen tracking, snap counts, injuries, and a live National Weather Service read per stadium.

02

Simulate

An EPA margin model and a 320-state drive chain run 10,000 games per matchup into full outcome distributions.

03

Decide

Gates, a rank score, and quarter-Kelly sizing surface only real edge versus the de-vigged market — never a quota.

THE LEARNING SYSTEM

— a model that grades itself every week
LAYER_01

Self-Correction

Every prediction is settled against the result; a CUSUM monitor catches drift and a nightly retune corrects it.
LAYER_02

Adaptive Ratings

Team strength tracked with a Kalman state-space model — re-rated weekly for injuries and the transfer portal.
LAYER_03

Proper Scoring

Calibration judged by Brier decomposition and CRPS — do the probabilities match real outcome frequency.
LAYER_04

Closing-Line Value

Every result benchmarked against the closing market price — the industry standard for real signal.

GAME MARKETS

— six core lines, NFL + CFB
GAME_01

Point Spread

A 6-term EPA margin model with a discrete key-number kernel that respects the 3 and 7.
GAME_02

Moneyline

Win probability from the simulated score distribution, with a dedicated overtime model (incl. NCAA).
GAME_03

Game Total

Drives × points-per-drive, adjusted by a live weather module — wind, temp, precip, dome detection.
GAME_04

Team Totals

Per-team scoring pulled from the joint margin-and-total distribution.
GAME_05

Alt Lines & Key Numbers

Any alternate spread or total priced, with half-point and key-number value made explicit.
GAME_06

1H / 1Q & Teasers

First-half and first-quarter derivatives plus 6-point teaser previews with a Wong-window flag.

PLAYER PROPS

— the full menu, priced off the sim
PROP_01

Passing Yards

Compound completions × per-completion yardage, CPOE-shrunk and weather-adjusted.
PROP_02

Pass TDs & INTs

TDs anchored to the team total; INTs off a turnover-worthy-throw proxy.
PROP_03

Completions & Attempts

Attempts from sim dropback volume, completions via a CPOE-shrunk rate.
PROP_04

Rushing Yards & Att

Negative-binomial carries; per-carry loss / body / breakaway mixture with a big-play tail.
PROP_05

Receptions & Rec Yards

Targets thinned by catch probability off an aDOT curve; YAC variance built in.
PROP_06

Pay Dirt — Anytime TD

A touchdown-scorer model on goal-line and red-zone share: anytime, first, and 2+ TD.
PROP_07

Kicker Props

Field goals off drive/stall rate and a distance-plus-wind make-probability curve.
PROP_08

Defense Props

Sacks, tackles, and interceptions anchored to opponent offensive volume.
PROP_09

Longest Play & Alt Lines

Longest reception/rush via order statistics; any posted alt line assessed vs. the full distribution.

SPECIALTY & PARLAYS

— straight off the same simulation batch
EXOTIC

Game Exotics

First score type & team, margin bands, safety, overtime, turnovers, punts.
SGP

Feeding Frenzy

Same-game parlays priced from joint outcomes — real correlation, not multiplied odds.
LIVE

Live Re-Score

Adjusted live lines re-priced in real time as in-game swings open new gaps.

WHO WE ARE

— built by the team that uses it
◤ FIELD SHARK

Built By The Team That Uses It

Field Shark was built by a team of quantitative finance professionals, software engineers, and lifelong football fans — frustrated that no consumer tool paired real professional-grade methodology with honest, verifiable outputs across the NFL and college football. The method is proprietary; the outputs are transparent. And every member of this team uses Field Shark with their own money on the line — we built it to the standard of people who can't afford to get it wrong.

APPROACH

Wall Street–Style Modeling

Finance-grade quantitative forecasting — Monte Carlo, state-space ratings, proper scoring rules — applied to football.
STAKE

Our Own Money On The Line

Built to the standard of people who bet real money against the model. When it's wrong, it costs us too.
HONEST

A Track Record We Don't Hide

The full scorecard — win rate, ROI, CLV, cold weeks included — lives inside the app. Nothing filtered.

NOT AI SLOP

— a real engine, not a chatbot guessing
✗ NO CHATBOTS

An Engine, Not A Language Model

Every number is a 10,000-game Monte Carlo simulation and a 320-state drive chain — millions of real computations per matchup. That's a quantitative model, not a chatbot predicting the next word.
✗ CAN'T SIMULATE

AI Can't Run The Sims

A language model pattern-matches text — it can't play a game out 10,000 times or hold a real probability distribution. Ask two AI tools to price a 4-leg parlay and you'll get two different answers, both wrong.
✓ VERIFY ONLY

AI Checks Our Work — It Doesn't Do It

We use AI only as a verification layer to catch errors and flag inconsistencies. Every probability is produced by the engine, never written by a chatbot.

ABOUT THE APP

— what Field Shark is
PLATFORM

What Field Shark Is

An NFL & college football statistics and probability platform. Not a sportsbook — it doesn't accept or facilitate wagers. Informational and entertainment only.
COVERAGE

Two Leagues, One Engine

The same engine runs separate models for the NFL and college football — every game, every week, all season long.
21+

Responsible Play

Nothing here is betting advice. You must be 21+. If gambling is affecting you, help is available 24/7: 1-800-GAMBLER.

FEATURES

— nine surfaces, one engine
01 --

Best Bets Board

The slate's top edges ranked by Field Edge™ vs. the de-vigged market, matched to the best odds.
Ranked By Edge
02 --

Matchup Lab

Savant-style stat tables, a live field diagram, weather, and the model's spread/total/ML in one place.
Savant + Field
03 --

Live Game Center

Real-time dashboard once a game kicks off — live win probability, drive chart, and play-by-play, refreshing every 25 seconds.
Live · 25s
04 --

Pay Dirt

Anytime touchdown-scorer analysis on goal-line and red-zone share — anytime, first, and 2+ TD props.
Anytime TD Scorer
05 --

Feeding Frenzy

Same-game parlays priced with real correlation between legs from the same simulation batch.
Smart SGP
06 --

QB Terminal

Every probable starter on EPA/dropback, CPOE, pressure-to-sack, time to throw, and turnover-worthy rate.
QB Metrics
07 --

Playmakers Report

Usage and opportunity as Bayesian posteriors with credible intervals, plus YPRR, RYOE, and outlook.
Usage + Efficiency
08 --

Model Scorecard

Win rate, ROI, calibration, and closing-line value by market, with drift monitoring. Unfiltered.
Full History + CLV
09 --

My Bets Tracker

Log your plays, auto-graded when results post — your record, net units, and CLV per bet.
Auto-Graded

PRICING

— one plan, everything included
Launching soon on iOS & Android. Get on the early-access list and we'll notify you the moment it goes live. No spam.
The Complete Engine.
Every Week of the Season.
No feature tiers. No locked markets. One subscription gives you everything — every analysis, every live game, every tool — across the full NFL and college football seasons.
✓Full probability analysis across every market, every game — NFL + CFB
✓A 10,000-game sim, EPA margin model & drive chain behind every output
✓Live win probability, drive chart, and play-by-play — 25-second refresh
✓Matchup Lab, Pay Dirt TD scorer, Feeding Frenzy SGP, QB & Playmaker reports
✓Personal bet tracker with auto-grading and closing-line value
✓Complete model scorecard with full unfiltered history
✓A model that re-calibrates itself every week
Download on the App Store
FIELD SHARK ELITE
Full Access
$
29.99
per month · billed monthly through app store
Free trial — no charge until the trial ends
No spam. We'll email you the app link the moment it's published.